"How's the market?" This is, by far, the question that I am asked most often (if you don't include questions from my kids that start with "Dad, can I...?)
In the 21 years that I have been a licensed Realtor, this is one of the toughest markets to measure. I use three measurements to read the market – the first is number of overall contracts.
CONTRACTS NOT CLOSINGS
Unlike closings which occur weeks or months after the purchase is made, contracts measure the current market. Since the majority of contracts actually close, the closing numbers do show up… only months later.
A dramatic example of the contracts reacting to events was in the days following September 11, 2001 , when Morris County contracts dropped 11.3% at the same time that closings were up 10.1%. The result of the events of that day would not be felt in the real estate market for months to come, but contract signings… or lack of, showed what was to follow.
In a declining market such as the one we’ve been in since 2007, the first sign that we’ve found the floor is when contracts start to increase. Since October, 2008 we’ve seen a 9.6% increase in overall contracts in Morris County and an 11.4% increase in Randolph. Keep in mind that contracts are down 12.9% in Morris County and 5.7% in Randolph from 2007. Although the market has improved, we’re still not back where we were in the good old days.
Watch for continued reaction to the market and interest rates and tax incentives via contract signings in coming months.
Feel free to call me at 862-432-2771 or email andrew@randolphnjhomes.com for complete data.
0 comments:
Post a Comment